Putting my money where my mouth is!

Trading results for 2016

At the end of the day, all the talking about trading means nothing, until there is a track record.
It’s the last trading day of the year, so it is time for me to report on how my various different trading portfolios have performed. I am unable to report the exact 12 month returns, as I neglected to make a note of the balances of the accounts at the change of last year (sorry). Anyway, here goes, for what it's worth:

1. Trend-trading portfolio. This is the portfolio that I report on in my YouTube videos. It is a trend-following strategy that uses a simple timing technique to be either invested or in cash in each asset class. I look at this portfolio once every week. I have been trading this portfolio for less than a year. It has returned +14.2% over the past nine months.

2. Asset class rebalancing. This has similarities to the previous portfolio, although the asset classes allocation differs slightly. It is simply rebalanced twice per year in order to make me ‘sell high and buy low’. This portfolio has returned 14.8% over the past eight months.

The closest investment trust that the above two accounts could be compared to is the Personal Assets Investment Trust (PNL). It has investments in a spread of asset classes. PNL returned 12.6% in the year to October. The results for the whole of 2016 are not yet available on their website. So it looks like I have probably out-performed this huge investment trust.

3. Stock picking account. This, smaller, account was run as a daily trading account for the first eight months of the year, during which time it lost money. I then changed to a weekly trading system which has generated profits during the last four months of the year. However, overall the account is down 8% over the twelve months of the year. Looks like weekly trading is the way to go…..

4. QVM Strategy. This account is a once per year account. Nice and simple, hands-off approach, always invested in stocks that fit certain criteria. I have only had this portfolio running for six months, but in that period it has returned 4%. Still early days for this strategy. But it is nice and easy. The fact that I don’t look at the account from one week to the next is quite likely a good thing.

The closest comparison to this might be the Vanguard All-World ETF. This ETF returned 3.8% in the twelve months to Nov 2016, so hopefully my QVM Portfolio is out-performing Vanguard’s All-World ETF. It will be clearer this time next year, of course.

5. Options trading. I have traded this account using daily and weekly options strategies. I have also simply bought stocks and ETFs and held them. All of these techniques have been trend-following strategies. This account has returned the most of all this year: It has made a stonking 26% over the past twelve months!
The interesting thing about options trading is that I seem to have a loss rate of approx 66% and a win rate of 33%. The thing is, that when an options trade goes well, it goes very well! Here is a graph of my best trade of the year, when the price of US Steel rose, triggering a buy signal.

The stock price then went on to double in price. This increased the value of the Options that I held by 493% at the point of sale. So it is quite likely that my future options trading account returns will differ hugely from the returns that I have made this year.

Thanks for reading my blog. If you are interested in what I do, make sure that you are on my mailing list so that you can get all the free information that I produce. For those of you who wish to know more about my additional portfolios and trading systems, I plan to produce a premium membership plan during 2017, that will give access to all of this for a modest fee!

Please remember that I am not a financial adviser. I am not attempting to persuade you to do what I do. Regard this as entertainment only, please. If you want advice from a qualified financial adviser, then you are in the wrong place by being here!

By the way, how are the different asset classes of my trend-trading portfolio doing? Click here to see a brief video! (only 4 mins).

Happy New Year!

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